Pandemic-driven changes in municipal solid waste characteristics and energy recovery potential: A six-year analysis before and after COVID-19

This study investigates the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on municipal solid waste generation and physicochemical characteristics using a six-year dataset (2018–2023) obtained from a municipal incineration–resource recovery facility in Tongyeong, a mid-sized coastal city in Gyeongsangnam-do, Republic of Korea, representative of high-income East Asian urban waste-management systems. By comparing three-year periods before and after the pandemic, changes in waste composition were systematically analyzed across 11 categories, with particular focus on moisture content, higher and lower heating values (HHV and LHV), and the distribution of the three major waste components—moisture, combustible matter, and ash. The results reveal pronounced pandemic-driven shifts in waste characteristics. Food waste exhibited increased moisture content, whereas plastics and textiles showed significant moisture reductions, reflecting increased use of single-use products and packaging materials. These compositional changes were accompanied by a marked increase in combustible matter and a decrease in ash content, enhancing calorific value and energy recovery potential following the initial disruption period. A temporary decline in HHV and LHV immediately after the outbreak was observed, followed by recovery and subsequent increase as waste streams stabilized. The findings demonstrate that public health crises can induce rapid and persistent transformations in waste composition, with direct implications for incineration efficiency, energy recovery performance, and emissions. This study underscores the importance of data-driven and adaptive waste management strategies that account for dynamic waste properties under emergency conditions. By providing long-term empirical evidence, the results offer a predictive framework for improving resilience of waste-to-energy systems and supporting sustainable, ESG-aligned, and net-zero-oriented waste management policies under future global disruptions.