Post-Industrialism: Prosperity or Decline?

Three models of post-industrial society are examined and then compared in relation to recent trends in labor force distribution, real income, and production. Two of the models, formulated by Daniel Bell and Herman Kahn, predicted varying levels of improvement in income and production. The third model, developed by Heilbroner and by a group at the Stanford Research Institute, predicted a decline in production and standard of living. Economic trends in the 1973 to 1988 period are most compatible with the model of post-industrialism as an era of decline. The causes of this decline, however, are related to economic and political processes rather than the environmental factors emphasized in the Heilbroner-Stanford Research Institute model.