Economic Rebuilding Frameworks in Post-War States: Takeaways for Ukraine

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

The post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy is increasingly debated among scholars and experts, with key issues including financing sources for reconstruction, investment conditions, institutional barriers, and the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies. This article examines the implementation of economic recovery models in post-conflict countries and develops recommendations tailored to Ukraine. Using a descriptive-analytical approach, the study analyses and systematises macroeconomic indicators for 2021–2027 (including forecasts) to assess Ukraine’s recovery potential. The findings indicate moderate economic growth, declining inflation, and a reduced key policy rate in 2025, with stronger recovery anticipated in 2026–2027. Budget deficits are expected to be financed by external loans and grants, primarily directed to the defence sector. In this context, the government must prioritize identifying sustainable recovery sources. Continued structural reforms will be essential for building institutional capacity to address post-war economic and social challenges. International experience underscores the need for political stability, institutional strengthening, trade liberalisation, and targeted international aid to support vulnerable sectors. Support funds and external resources must be carefully allocated to Ukraine’s most pressing needs. Ensuring political stability through effective security mechanisms is crucial to the long-term reconstruction process. Economic recovery drivers will centre on directing international assistance toward structural weaknesses in Ukraine’s economy, promoting innovation, and enabling the return of highly skilled migrants. The practical value of this study lies in its identification of key macroeconomic trends that will shape Ukraine’s post-war recovery path and inform the development of a sustainable and effective growth model.