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Experimental simulation reveals improved confidence calibration alongside stable heuristic bias in young adults, highlighting decision-making patterns during the biological night.
This study examined two cognitive processes, calibration and use of heuristics, across a simulated night shift. Seventy-one college students (23 females) completed a series of tasks across four testing sessions. The participants completed a Decision-Making Task during each session that included general knowledge questions with follow-up questions on their confidence in their response as well as questions portraying the heuristic processes of availability and representativeness. The results showed that calibration tended to improve over the course of the simulated night shift as initial overconfidence decreased toward more accurate calibration. This occurred largely as a result of decreasing confidence without an attendant decrease in accuracy. No changes were observed in the use of heuristics with participants using heuristic judgment processes across the shift. Understanding how individuals use cognitive strategies during the biological night is important for workers, organizations, and researchers to help improve on-the-job productivity and safety.
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Pilcher et al. (2026) studied this question.
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