This article is a contribution to the long standing issue of identifying directionality in semantic change. Drawing on evidence from a sample of morphologically complex terms in basic vocabulary for 149 globally distributed languages, it is argued that cross-linguistically preferred synchronic relationships of word-formation provide clues to likely directions of diachronic semantic developments. The hypothesis is tested against diachronic data from Indo-Aryan languages, and, in spite of a number of counterexamples, a correlation is found. In addition, it is shown how these data can be applied to semantic reconstruction, and a scenario of semantic change which involves morphological complexity in an early stage of semantic development is sketched.
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Matthias Urban (2011) studied this question.