Advancing wildfire risk assessment: From static frameworks to dynamic, forward-looking approaches under a changing climate

Anthropogenic climate change, land-use patterns and socioeconomic indicators are increasingly shaping wildfire risk. Conceptual risk frameworks, such as the IPCC’s hazard, exposure and vulnerability model, emphasize dynamic interaction of their components, yet most operational wildfire risk assessments still treat these drivers as static by relying on historical baselines for present-day conditions or integrating projections for only one of the risk components in forward-looking assessments. This review highlights the resulting gap between the conceptualization of risk and its operationalization, which limits the ability to anticipate future wildfire risk. We examine global wildfire trends, existing risk frameworks in climate-related risk assessments and evaluate the limitations of applying these frameworks in spatiotemporal assessments. We then propose a framework that treats the determinants of risk as space and time-dependent, integrating historical, current and projected datasets to characterize how wildfire risk changes over time. This approach enhances our capacity to anticipate changes in wildfire risk and supports more forward-looking and adaptive risk management strategies.