Linking EU habitat and species protection through favourable reference areas: Evidence from threatened saproxylic beetles

Human‐driven changes in European forests have reduced habitat quality and connectivity, threatening specialist species. We assessed 32 saproxylic beetle species in Latvia based on 2668 observations to evaluate how conservation of EU forest habitats of importance supports species persistence. Species assigned to higher International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat categories (Vulnerable, Endangered) were significantly more likely to occur within these habitats, were found closer to forest patches and were significantly concentrated in areas with high habitat density and good to excellent habitat quality. Scenario‐based projections of forest management over 25 years indicated contrasting outcomes: under business‐as‐usual, continued habitat loss led to increased extinction risk for all species; moderate protection within Natura 2000 sites produced limited benefits; achieving the favourable reference area (FRA) substantially increased habitat availability and improved projected conservation status. Our results demonstrate that threatened saproxylic beetles are reliable indicators of habitat quality and are strongly dependent on high‐quality, continuous forest habitats. Achieving FRA targets is essential for securing the long‐term persistence of these species, particularly for those currently classified as Endangered or Vulnerable. These findings underscore the importance of expanding protected areas beyond Natura 2000 and implementing passive forest management to meet EU biodiversity restoration and conservation objectives.