A dynamic model suggests that for infectious disease control, the optimal policy is either eradication or a low vaccination rate, but never a high vaccination rate.
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May discourage high vaccination short of eradication; hypothesis-generating for optimal infectious disease policies.
Using a dynamic model of the control of an infectious disease, we derive the conditions under which eradication will be optimal. When eradication is feasible, the optimal program requires either a low vaccination rate or eradication. A high vaccination rate is never optimal. Under special conditions, the results are especially stark: the optimal policy is either not to vaccinate at all or to eradicate. Our analysis yields a cost–benefit rule for eradication, which we apply to the current initiative to eradicate polio.
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Barrett et al. (2007) studied this question.
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