Hemispheric asymmetry in evapotranspiration reveals terrestrial water-flux redistribution

Global warming is widely expected to intensify the hydrological cycle. However, observational evidence for accelerated evapotranspiration (ET), a key terrestrial water cycle and energy balance component, remains ambiguous. Here, we constrained diverse datasets using basin-scale ET estimates covering 47% of global land to reveal a hidden asymmetry. We found a small global change in ET [−0.06 ± 0.44 mm year −2 (millimeters per year squared), P > 0.10] from 2000 to 2022, resulting from strongly opposing hemispheric trends. The Northern Hemisphere shows noticeable ET increases (0.91 ± 0.46 mm year −2 , P < 0.05), primarily driven by vegetation greening, whereas the Southern Hemisphere exhibits strong declines (−2.63 ± 0.46 mm year −2 , P < 0.05) due to precipitation deficits. Our observation-constrained projections indicate that this asymmetry is likely to persist through 2050. The small global ET trend masks a marked compensation between northern greening and southern drying, suggesting that current models may overestimate homogenized water cycle intensification. Our study provides profound implications for global food security, carbon sequestration, drought risks, and regional climate adaptation.