A Comparison of Learning Curve Analysis and Moving Average Ratio Analysis for Detailed Operational Planning*

This study tests the use of learning curve analysis for production planning at the detailed component level under various conditions, represented by factors of product turnover rate, learning rate, variance levels, and planning horizon length. It also presents an alternative to learning curve analysis that considers aggregation of cost data across time. This alternative is periodic revision of standard cost data using moving average forecasts to reflect productivity trends. Results of this study indicate that in most circumstances a moving average analysis can provide better estimates of short‐term, detailed component operations costs than either a learning curve analysis or a standard analysis.