Forest fire risk under climate change in Austria and comparable European regions

Forest fires in the European Alpine region tend to increase under current climate change. This research assesses the degree of increase since the 1990s, the causes of the forest fires and the implications for the affected areas. European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) data were used to identify the number of fires, and past and current periods were compared based on the data since 1993. A qualitative multi-criteria framework analysis and impact assessment were used to compile the causes of the forest fires. Climate change indicators were used to help frame causes and link them to climate conditions and the likelihood of fires. The assessment was done for Austria, Slovenia, and Slovakia, which have comparable sizes and topography but somewhat different climates. The main ignition causes for forest fires in all these study regions are human-made (open fires, cigarettes, exhausts from cars), followed by lightning and storms that cause electricity lines to break down. Both the severity (size of fires/burnt area) and the frequency of occurrence have been found to increase under recent climate change. Inherent fire danger was found to increase as well. This underpins the conclusion that climate change will negatively affect forest safety in Austria and the adjacent regions. Their impacts on humans and ecosystems will become more severe, and by decreasing the forested area and increasing the greenhouse gas emissions from burning, climate change itself is further enhanced.