Econometric modeling reveals early indicators of exchange market stress in India, highlighting a transparent framework for monitoring external financial vulnerabilities.
This paper develops EM-FEWS, an Exchange Market Pressure-based financial early warning system for India, built using the KLR (Kaminsky-Lizondo-Reinhart) methodology. The model is designed to identify periods of currency and exchange market stress before they escalate into full-blown financial crises, using publicly available macroeconomic data. The framework is fully transparent and replicable, offering a practical tool for assessing external sector vulnerability in emerging market economies such as India. The paper is also available on SSRN and MPRA.
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Kumar Yash (2026) studied this question.
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