Predicting forest fire probability under current conditions and future climate change scenarios in Türkiye

: In recent years, intensified heat waves and prolonged droughts due to climate change have accelerated the ignition and spread of forest fires. Therefore, developing predictive, model-based approaches to reduce the probability of fires and mitigate potential damage is critical. This study employs the MaxEnt algorithm to model current and future (2020–2100) forest fire probabilities across Türkiye under the optimistic (SSP1-2.6) and pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. By analyzing historical fire records alongside climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables, the baseline model demonstrated robust predictive performance, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.82, a continuous Boyce index (CBI) of 0.85, and a true skill statistic (TSS) of 0.78. The results revealed that fire regimes in Türkiye are primarily governed by moisture and temperature dynamics; specifically, precipitation in the coldest quarter (bio19), annual mean temperature (bio1), and the topographic wetness index (TWI) emerged as the most critical determinants of fire probability. Future projections indicate considerable temporal and spatial transformations in fire probability by the end of the century. Under the optimistic scenario, high-risk areas show a progressive increase while low-risk zones rapidly contract. In the pessimistic scenario, a sharp decline in low-risk areas (from 44.15 to 25.18 Mha) is observed until 2080. Notably, the partial increase in low-risk classes observed in the final quarter of the century is interpreted not as an improvement, but as a reflection of ecological tipping points, such as the depletion of fuel or widespread vegetation loss due to extreme droughts. One of the most significant results is the projected northward shift in the weighted mean center of areas classified as high and extreme forest fire probability. The shift reached approximately 81 km under SSP1-2.6 and 152 km under SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. This situation indicates that fire-prone environments are gradually expanding into humid forest ecosystems in northern Türkiye, which are currently classified as low-risk. Ultimately, by identifying regions where future vulnerability will intensify, this study provides a strategic foundation for planning effective short- and long-term fire prevention, management, and suppression strategies.