The future of Thailand’s population policy: Potential directions

Thailand has experienced concurrent population fertility change and economic change. Fertility in the country is close to or at replacement level and has been projected to even fall below replacement level. The authors consider whether Thailand's rate of fertility will fall below replacement, whether further fertility decline should be encouraged, and how policies may be adjusted to ensure that fertility decline is relatively uniform across all segments of the population. Since the mean desired family size of married couples remains about two children, it is unlikely that the fertility rate in Thailand will fall below replacement barring substantial change in the country's social and cultural contexts. Some people concerned about population aging and potential labor shortages, however, are calling for the development and implementation of pronatalist government policy. Such a move may be unwarranted given the very long time lag required before fertility decline affects the absolute size of elderly populations. As for labor shortages, Thailand's rapidly growing economy and lagging education are more to blame than demographic change. Policy makers and planners in Thailand must reevaluate the country's long-term population goals and policies.