Combining Conflicting Bayesian Models to Develop Paleoseismic Records: An Example from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah

Research Article| June 26, 2018 Combining Conflicting Bayesian Models to Develop Paleoseismic Records: An Example from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah Christopher B. DuRoss; Christopher B. DuRoss aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Scott E. K. Bennett; Scott E. K. Bennett bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 973, Menlo Park, California 94025 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Richard W. Briggs; Richard W. Briggs aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Stephen F. Personius; Stephen F. Personius aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Ryan D. Gold; Ryan D. Gold aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Nadine G. Reitman; Nadine G. Reitman aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.goveNow at University of Colorado Boulder, 2200 Colorado Avenue, Boulder, Colorado 80309. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Adam I. Hiscock; Adam I. Hiscock cUtah Geological Survey, P.O. Box 146100, 1594 W. North Temple, Salt Lake City, Utah 84114‐6100 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Shannon A. Mahan Shannon A. Mahan dU.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 980, Denver, Colorado 80225 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Christopher B. DuRoss aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.gov Scott E. K. Bennett bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 973, Menlo Park, California 94025 Richard W. Briggs aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.gov Stephen F. Personius aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.gov Ryan D. Gold aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.gov Nadine G. Reitman aU.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, cduross@usgs.goveNow at University of Colorado Boulder, 2200 Colorado Avenue, Boulder, Colorado 80309. Adam I. Hiscock cUtah Geological Survey, P.O. Box 146100, 1594 W. North Temple, Salt Lake City, Utah 84114‐6100 Shannon A. Mahan dU.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS 980, Denver, Colorado 80225 Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 26 Jun 2018 Online Issn: 1943-3573 Print Issn: 0037-1106 © Seismological Society of America Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (6): 3180–3201. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170302 Article history First Online: 26 Jun 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Christopher B. DuRoss, Scott E. K. Bennett, Richard W. Briggs, Stephen F. Personius, Ryan D. Gold, Nadine G. Reitman, Adam I. Hiscock, Shannon A. Mahan; Combining Conflicting Bayesian Models to Develop Paleoseismic Records: An Example from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2018;; 108 (6): 3180–3201. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170302 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Bayesian statistical analyses of paleoseismic data result in the probabilistic determination of earthquake times using geochronological data evaluated in the context of a stratigraphic model. However, a fundamental problem in paleoseismology is how to use the Bayesian approach to model sparse and/or conflicting geochronological datasets, such as those derived from sites exhibiting episodic sedimentary and pedogenic processes in moderate‐ to high‐energy environments (e.g., a normal‐faulted alluvial fan). Using paleoseismic data for the Corner Canyon site on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone (Utah), we develop an approach by which multiple Bayesian models are combined to generate an earthquake history at a site. This approach accommodates mutually exclusive interpretations of the geochronological data and thereby limits the influence of sparse data, stratigraphically inconsistent ages, or a single, subjective model interpretation. For the Corner Canyon site, we integrate four OxCal Bayesian models to generate a chronology of six events between ∼4.8 and ∼0.5 ka⁠. Late Holocene (post‐5 ka) mean recurrence and vertical slip‐rate estimates are ∼0.9 ky (0.7–1.0 ky; 95% confidence) and 1.1 mm/yr (⁠0.8–1.7 mm/yr range), respectively. Although our method increases the uncertainty in the timing of individual earthquakes, it more objectively accounts for potential geochronological errors and different interpretations of stratigraphic age control. By relaxing the need to select a single age model, our approach yields more accurate earthquake‐timing results that will better facilitate evaluations of along‐fault event correlation and earthquake rupture length. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.