Modeled spatial assessment of biomass productivity and technical potential ofMiscanthus × giganteus,Panicum virgatumL., andJatrophaon marginal land in China

This article identifies marginal land technically available for the production of energy crops in China, compares three models of yield prediction forMiscanthus × giganteus,Panicum virgatumL.(switchgrass), andJatropha, and estimates their spatially specific yields and technical potential for 2017. Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of land use maps estimated that 185 Mha of marginal land was technically available for energy crops in China without using areas currently used for food production. Modeled yields were projected forMiscanthus × giganteus, a GIS‐based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model for switchgrass and Global Agro‐Ecological Zone model forJatropha. GIS analysis and MiscanFor estimated more than 120 Mha marginal land was technically available forMiscanthuswith a total potential of 1,761 dry weight metric million tonne (DW Mt)/year. A total of 284 DW Mt/year of switchgrass could be obtained from 30 Mha marginal land, with an average yield of 9.5 DW t ha−1 year−1. More than 35 Mha marginal land was technically available forJatropha, delivering 9.7 Mt/year ofJatrophaseed. The total technical potential from available marginal land was calculated as 31.7 EJ/year forMiscanthus, 5.1 EJ/year for switchgrass, and 0.13 EJ/year forJatropha. A total technical bioenergy potential of 34.4 EJ/year was calculated by identifying best suited crop for each 1 km2grid cell based on the highest energy value among the three crops. The results indicate that the technical potential per hectare ofJatrophais unable to compete with that of the other two crops in each grid cell. This modeling study provides planners with spatial overviews that demonstrate the potential of these crops and where biomass production could be potentially distributed in China which needs field trials to test model assumptions and build experience necessary to translate into practicality.