Performance Tradeoff Characteristic of a Flood Warning System1

The performance of a flood warning system can be characterized statistically by three variables: the expected number of detections per year, ND; the expected number of false warnings per year, NP; and the expected lead time of a warning, LT. The Performance Tradeoff Characteristic (PTC) of a warning system is a set of all combinations (ND, NP, and LT) that are feasible to attain in a given system. The concept of PTC is an evolution of the concept of ROC (Relative Operating Characteristic) widely used in detection theory. Each characteristic, ROC and PTC, can be displayed graphically in the form of a family of curves. The displays offer an aid to engineering planning and design of flood warning systems. (KEY TERMS: flood forecasts; flood warnings; reliability; detection; Relative Operating Characteristic; Performance Tradeoff Characteristic.)