State-led inclusion or temporary relief? Evaluating SA’s presidential employment stimulus through a sustainable development lens

This paper evaluates South Africa’s Presidential Employment Stimulus (PES), launched in October 2020, to assess whether direct public employment can mitigate structural youth unemployment. Using 15 years of Quarterly Labour Force Survey data (2010 Q1–24 Q4) and a trend-adjusted difference-in-differences design, the study examines individuals aged 18–35 (matching BEEI eligibility) against a control group aged 36–45, with covariates and survey-design-robust standard errors. The findings indicate persistent labour market scarring: by 2024, the youth–adult employment gap remained wider than its 2019 level. However, trend-adjusted estimates indicate a 3.8 percentage point deviation from the pre-existing downward trajectory (SE = 0.005, p < 0.001). A placebo test supports the specification’s validity. Heterogeneity analysis shows broadly distributed stabilisation across gender and education groups. The findings suggest direct public employment can play a stabilising role but cannot independently reverse structural youth unemployment in a low-growth environment. The study relies on repeated cross-sectional data.