Methodological registry reports tracking of 67 pre-registered predictions across defined operational statuses, highlighting systematic transparency and verifiable falsification.
Every Pre-Registered Prediction in the Which Way Value Moves Program, with Falsifiers, Instruments, and Status Sixty-six pre-registered predictions arising from the research program stated in [which-way-value-moves](which-way-value-moves.md). One further prediction is withheld from publication (operational channel economics); its existence is recorded here so the count is honest, bringing the true total to sixty-seven. Status vocabulary. Unrun — registered, no observation attempted. Running — instrument live, data accumulating, not yet read. Resolved — read against its falsifier. Contradicted — the data went against it. Retired — superseded by a ruling that made it moot; kept, never deleted. Provenance. This paper is part of the THonly research corpus, dedicated to the public domain under CC0 1.0. The canonical version is at https://thonly.org/research/prediction-register. Its SHA-256 is 12ed072d7cbec38f14650e3048ae92876a059ea60d61718c5c7dfcda1c784bdd, independently timestamped to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps and signed under RFC 3161 by three trust authorities, one of them eIDAS-qualified. AI co-authorship is disclosed. Miss Aquarius is the consistent name used for the AI collaboration across all venues.
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Ly et al. (2026) studied this question.
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