A simple model is given for the infrared light-echo from a supernova explosion in a molecular cloud. The color temperature is determined by the vaporization temperature of the dust grains, and the time scale is given by the light travel time across the distance to which grains are vaporized. For typical parameters, a supernova exploding in a cloud with a density of approximately 10,000/cu cm at a distance of 10 kpc produces a flux of approximately 60,000 Jy at 3.5 microns for 150 days.
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E. L. Wright (1980) studied this question.