Up-to-date approaches to forecast of epidemiological situation with incidence of enteroviral meningitis

This work evaluates the results of long-term dynamic monitoring of non-polio enteroviruses (NPEV) circulation in the indicator subpopulation in Yekaterinburg (children aged 3 to 6 years old), isolation of this group of viruses from specimens of sewage and the spectrum of causative agents detected in the liquor of patients with enteroviral meningitis (EVM). We established a high comparability rate of Coxsackie B and ECHO virus serotypes etiologically significant in EVM and isolated from healthy carriers. NPEV detected in sewage waters over the observation period were presented mainly by Coxsackie B viruses (84.0 %), while ECHO viruses (75.6 %) dominated among the causative agents of EVM. A conclusion was made about low informative value of the sewage study results for evaluation and forecast of the EVM epidemic situation as well as about the rationale for including the screening studies of NPEV circulation in the indicator subpopulation into the system of virological and molecular genetic monitoring.