The impact of increasing non-agricultural market access on EU demand for imported fish: implications for Lake Victoria chilled fillet exports

Import demand functions for origin-specific chilled fish fillets to the EU using a Rotterdam-type production model are estimated. Results are used to project the impact of the EU expanding market access to non-African countries. The preference erosion argument suggests that the lower tariffs will erode the competitive position of African countries; however, when the total impact of prices is considered, expanding preferential access may result in increased imports from African countries. If tariffs are reduced to zero, the total EU imports are projected to increase by 4.1 per cent resulting in a 2.2 per cent increase in chilled fillet imports from Lake Victoria.