SUMMARY As shown in the last columns of Table I, the year 1947 brought a 9.6% increase in world oil production over 1946 and 43% over 1939. These result from an increase in the United States of 7% over 1946 and 47% over 1939, and from an increase abroad of 14% over 1946 and 43% over 1939. Along with post-war readjustments, there were large regional differences in production change, as is shown in Table I. The largest progressive increase in production over recent years was in the Middle East, amounting to 19% over 1946 and 163% over 1939. Indonesia recorded a 60% increase over 1946 but was still 63% below 1939. Europe and Asia, outside of Russia, produced somewhat less last year than in 1946 and considerably less than in 1939, due either or both to the ravages of war and post-war policies. Russia, recovering from the effects of war and urged by the pressure of demand for petroleum, increased production 17% over 1946, but was still 14% below pre-war. Outstanding in the Western Hemisphere is Venezuela, which registered an increase of 12% over 1946 and 112% over 1939. In addition to the trend in individual areas, the first four columns of Table I show the relative percentage of world production supplied in 1930, 1939, 1946 and 1947. Column 1 of Table II shows the same picture for cumulative production through 1947. Of principal note is the rather consistently uniform percentage of total world oil produced since 1930 by the Western and Eastern Hemispheres (about 80 and 20% respectively), by the United States (62%), and by all foreign (38%). During the same 18-year period there was a moderate increase in South America (13.4 to 17.2%), which was offset by a moderate decrease (66.6 to 63.6%) in North America. A three-fold increase in the Middle East (3.5 to 10.5%) was approximately balanced by decreases in other regions of the Eastern Hemisphere. The first two columns of Table II give a good comparison of percentage distribution of oil production in 1947 with cumulative for the major regional subdivisions. Outstanding in this comparison is the place taken to-day by Venezuela and the Middle East, in each case the percentage of total world output in 1947 was approximately double the percentage of total cumulative. The third column of Table II gives the regional distribution of the world’s nearly 70 billion barrels of proved reserves. The fourth column of Table II gives the writer’s estimate of the approximate distribution of ultimate potential reserves, which includes oil produced to date, proved reserves and oil still to be found. These figures are the result of long and extensive analytical study of the basin areas of the world. They are calculated largely by the use of various factors, resulting in the first place from an analysis of the facts of oil occurrence worldwide, and secondly from an extensive study of the relation thereto of a great many fundamental facts of basin classification and architecture, deposition conditions, environment and history that are empirically found to control oil occurrence. Part to all of the figures given here, at various stages of revision, have appeared in print previously. The last column shows the percentage of ultimate produced, arrived at by dividing the figures in column 1 by the estimates in the fourth column. The significance of these figures is apparent. A table at the end of the main paper gives cumulative oil production through 1947 and daily averages for 1939 and 1947 for all countries and major world subdivisions. Another table at the end of the main paper shows the distribution of geophysical effort in crew months for 1947. Comparison with 1946 indicates an approximate 20% increase in geophysical study which appears to be an approximate measure of the increase in total exploratory effort in 1947. The main paper gives a brief outline of the highlights of developments during 1947 for more than 60 foreign countries in which there was activity in the search for oil.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Lewis G. Weeks (1948) studied this question.