Being ready for climate change: determinants of climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers in Antioquia, Colombia

Among 806 smallholder households in Antioquia, Colombia, only 28% adopt at least one climate adaptation strategy despite widespread exposure to climate risk. We estimate two logistic regression models—one for overall adaptation and one for land-focused adaptation among landowners—with explanatory variables selected via group LASSO. Each additional unit on a six-item climate perception index raises the adaptation probability by 6.5% points in Model 1 and 6.9% points in Model 2. Education, land assets, and access to basic services further predict adoption. Households with better housing conditions—a proxy for wealth—are less likely to adopt land-based strategies, suggesting that wealthier households diversify livelihoods rather than adapt farming practices. Both models show adequate calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow p > 0.14 ) and good discriminatory power (AUC: 0.79 and 0.84). These patterns call for differentiated interventions: targeted information campaigns, financial products matched to adaptive investment scales, and support for the community institutions that diffuse adaptive knowledge.