The objective of this paper is to examine transformational change in the New York City water supply system through the use of a framework designed to investigate urban environmental policy transitions. The framework utilises resilience theory and complex system transition theory to examine how a policy system responds to a series of stressors and shocks and then might undergo a broad system-level change — a “critical transition,” which is a non-linear system shift from one state of equilibrium to another. We use the framework to analyse a 1830s critical transition that occurred in the city’s water supply system as it switched from a local private supply system to a regional, publicly financed system. In the discussion, we review how this type of analysis might be useful for understanding the stresses and crises emerging in contemporary urban systems and policy environments as they face the impacts of climate change.
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Solecki et al. (2026) studied this question.
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