Verification scores are presented to illustrate the general success of NMC forecasters in providing the best day 3,4, and 5 mean sea level pressure and 6–10-day mean 500-mb height fields given the operationally available array of often conflicting NWP model solutions. As a primer on NMC efforts to enhance the utility of the medium-range forecast guidance, a brief overview is provided on the rationale and expectations for ensemble prediction.
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M. Steven Tracton (1993) studied this question.