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August 30, 2026Quality & QuantityOpen Access

Identifying conflict hotspots in Papua through integrated graph theory and clustering analysis

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Authors

ASAlvian SroyerIBIshak Semuel BenoHMHenderina Morin

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Overview

Computational modeling study uncovers central conflict hubs and distinct regional clusters in Papua, highlighting pathways for data-driven early warning.

Key Points

  • To identify central structural nodes within regional conflict networks and statistically validate spatial conflict hotspots using an integrated computational framework.
  • Analyzed incident records from 2018 to 2024 compiled from Human Rights Monitor and Komnas HAM RI, converted into adjacency matrices and spatial coordinates.
  • Calculated graph centrality metrics (degree and betweenness) and modularity to determine network hubs and community partitions.
  • Applied unsupervised clustering via K-Means and DBSCAN to classify districts by conflict intensity, validating cluster cohesion using Silhouette Scores.
  • Documented conflict escalation between 2018 and 2024, characterized by violent clashes increasing from 5 to 20 incidents and displacement cases rising twentyfold.
  • Identified Yahukimo, Intan Jaya, and Nduga as key network hubs, with Yahukimo serving as both hub and broker (degree centrality = 0.29, betweenness centrality = 0.38) and modularity (Q ≈ 0.42) separating highland from western districts.
  • Achieved Silhouette Scores exceeding 0.6 for high-intensity clusters, statistically distinguishing persistent conflict hotspots from sporadic outliers.

Cite This Study

Sroyer et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a93efe56c1a8fb52e79be3ehttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-026-03079-0
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