A logistics trilemma: Assessing transport infrastructure and route viability for Kazakh oil exports to Europe

Kazakhstan has emerged as the European Union’s third-largest crude oil supplier since 2022, reflecting a broader reconfiguration of global energy trade and increasing reliance on alternative sources. This study assesses the viability of Kazakhstan’s main crude oil export routes to the EU by examining their throughput capacity, transport costs, and operational constraints. The analysis compares established pipeline systems, primarily the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and the Transneft pipeline system, with emerging multimodal alternatives, including the Trans-Caspian corridor. The findings reveal a logistics trilemma, in which transport routes are shaped by trade-offs between capacity, cost efficiency, and operational resilience. Pipeline-based systems offer significant advantages in terms of volume and cost but concentrate flows along a limited number of corridors, increasing exposure to disruptions. Recent incidents affecting export infrastructure highlight the vulnerability of such configurations. In contrast, alternative routes enhance diversification and flexibility but face higher costs, limited scalability, and coordination challenges. The study demonstrates that no single corridor simultaneously satisfies all three dimensions of the trilemma. It emphasizes the need for a balanced, multi-route strategy supported by infrastructure investment and improved corridor coordination. The findings provide a structured framework for assessing transport systems under conditions of uncertainty and are relevant for both policymakers and industry stakeholders.