Shaping the future: Land use trends in a central European river basin

The aim of this study was to analyze historical land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Upper Vistula Basin (Central Europe, Poland) during the period 1990–2018 and to develop a long-term projection of LULC changes until 2100 using the CA–Markov model. The analyses were based on the CORINE Land Cover database. The results showed that the dominant processes shaping the land-use structure were urbanization, agricultural land transformation, and forest succession, with the most dynamic changes occurring after 2000. Agricultural land represented the primary source of land-use transitions, mainly converting into built-up areas and forests. Model validation confirmed its high predictive performance (OA = 0.917, Kappa coefficient = 0.888, Macro F1 = 0.846, Weighted F1 = 0.917, Quantity Disagreement = 0.025, and Allocation Disagreement = 0.057), supporting its application for long-term LULC projections. The forecasts indicate that the area of built-up land will increase from 3307.4 km 2 in 2025 to 3460.3 km 2 by 2100, while the forest area will expand from 16,698.1 km 2 to 17,366.6 km 2 . In contrast, mosaic agricultural areas are projected to decline markedly, from 4052.3 km 2 to 3349.6 km 2 , representing the largest change among all analyzed land-use classes. Although the rate of change is expected to gradually decrease after 2025, the cumulative effects of long-term urbanization, forest succession, and the reduction of agricultural land will lead to substantial landscape transformation across the Upper Vistula Basin by the end of the twenty-first century. These projected changes reflect persistent socio-economic processes, including urban expansion, agricultural restructuring, and the abandonment of marginal farmland, as well as environmental processes promoting natural vegetation succession. The findings provide valuable information to support long-term spatial planning, environmental management, and the development of sustainable land-use policies under ongoing socio-economic and environmental change.