Effects of insecurity on tourism growth in Abia State Nigeria

This study investigates how insecurity influences tourism growth along Abia State’s corridors, employing a convergent mixed-methods design that triangulates data from visitors, residents, and tourism firms across the major corridors feeding heritage sites such as the Long Juju of Arochukwu and the National War Museum. Using quantitative data from 300 visitors, 300 residents, and 80 tourism-related firms, complemented by key informant interviews and spatial analysis, we map hotspot dynamics and corridor exposure. The analysis identifies a pronounced concentration of security incidents along the Umunneochi–Isuikwuato–Ohafia belt, where more than 45% of reported incidents occur. Grounded in Risk Perception Theory and a Destination Resilience framework, the results reveal that perceived risk strongly reduces destination appeal ( r = −0.61) and visitation intent ( r = −0.54), while infrastructure improvements and visible state security initiatives buffer these effects by enhancing perceived safety and appeal. At the firm level, enterprises in high-risk corridors report occupancy declines of 18–25% and higher security costs (22–30%), with 46% delaying expansion and 29% reporting stalled investment; security expenditure accounts for roughly 31% of profitability variance. Importantly, corridor road rehabilitation, the ₦3.4 billion Abia Security Fund, and proactive risk signaling emerge as resilience enablers that mitigate adverse outcomes and support demand and investment recovery. The study contributes to subnational security–tourism scholarship by highlighting corridor-level dynamics and offering policy guidance for corridor governance, infrastructure prioritization, and safety signaling.