Development of a Bridge Deterioration Model in a Data-Constrained Environment

A stochastic time-based deterioration model for use with New Zealand bridges is presented, comprising two parts and being based on the condition management process that is used to assess the extent and severity of a defect, or defects. The first part is an expert-based severity deterioration model, which can be used to simulate the deterioration of timber, concrete, and pretensioned and steel load-bearing elements. The second part is the data-derived extent model, which uses a novel approach, not previously used, to simulate the growth of defects with time. By creating these extent and severity models, the general absence of deterioration models in the Australian and New Zealand region is addressed. Furthermore, the development of both the extent and severity models was achieved in a data-constrained environment, which led to validation and development challenges. How these challenges were dealt with, and the novel methods that were used to solve them are also covered.