Computational modeling framework reveals bidirectional temporal estimation in synthetic diagnostic simulations, suggesting improved auditability and leakage prevention.
Earth 2.0: Déjà Vu proposes an auditable computational framework for treating retrospective reconstruction and prospective forecasting as two queries to a shared, versioned model. At analysis time T, a retrospective query estimates a distribution over the preceding five minutes using evidence available by T; a prospective query freezes that evidence boundary and generates a distribution over the following five minutes under stated assumptions. The framework emphasizes provenance, uncertainty, versioning, leakage prevention, falsifiable evaluation, and explicit stop/go criteria. Version 1.0 is a conceptual preprint. Its current executable component is a forward-only, fixed-seed synthetic diagnostic that exercises data partitioning, recursive rollouts, interaction features, metrics, plots, and provenance. It contains no real ant or human data and does not yet implement or validate the proposed observation encoder, filter, smoother, or full bidirectional model. A controlled five-minute, four-ant experiment is specified as a future validation study. Earth-scale modeling is presented only as a long-term federated research direction—not as a demonstrated ability to reconstruct or predict all events or individuals. The concept, research direction, and publication decisions are the author’s. Generative-AI tools materially assisted with drafting, coding, simulation design, figures, and review; the author remains responsible for all claims, verification, limitations, and corrections.
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Meiler Rene Manguiat (2026) studied this question.
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