Distributionally Sensitive Evaluation of Wellbeing Mobility with an Application to the Second Wave of the COVID − 19 Pandemic in the UK

This article proposes a framework for the distributionally sensitive evaluation of wellbeing mobility in a population and the further analysis of mobility disparities between subgroups. Changes in population wellbeing are assessed in terms of differences in the chances of its members experiencing an improvement rather than a decline in personal wellbeing, which provides a relative approach to mobility evaluation as in prospect theory. Equity concerns are addressed by placing greater weight on the wellbeing prospects of individuals with lower initial wellbeing using two novel approaches, one based on a hierarchical set of nonparametric statistical preference conditions to rank comparable mobility matrices and the other on a parametric family of mobility evaluation indices. Mobility disparities are broken down into effects due to differences in initial wellbeing profiles and in transition processes. A study of the differential impact of the second COVID-19 wave in the UK by gender and age shows women, particularly younger women, experienced a larger decline in wellbeing than men even after controlling for differences in initial profiles, while also identifying the unusual persistence of low wellbeing among older men as an issue.