Predicting the recruitment strength of an annual squid stock: Loligo gahi around the Falkland Islands

Two cohorts of Loligo gahi recruit to the fishery around the Falkland Islands, the first in summer and the second in autumn-winter. We investigated factors affecting recruitment to these cohorts using 13 years of data (1987-1999). The first evidence for density-dependent effects on recruitment in a squid population is reported, with very high spawning stock biomass leading to a reduction in recruitment in both cohorts. October sea surface temperature was negatively correlated with recruitment to the second cohort 6 months later, and a linear model explained 66% of the variance in recruitment strength. A model combining sea surface temperature and spawning stock size explained 77% of the variance. Thus, low October temperatures and moderate stock sizes lead to higher recruitment the following year than high October temperatures and high stock sizes. A strong negative relationship was also found between sea surface temperature in May and the timing of recruitment to the first cohort the following January-February, suggesting that higher temperatures lead to faster development of embryos or paralarvae and earlier recruitment to the fishery. A predictive model of recruitment size and timing should enable better management of L. gahi.