Sexual offence recidivism: prediction versus understanding

This paper identifies from the literature risk factors for reoffending in convicted sex offenders. Unless all sex offenders are to be incarcerated for indeterminate lengths of time, some means to separate higher from lower risk men is clearly necessary. The complexities of the move from identifying high‐risk groups to predicting risk in specific individuals is discussed. It is argued that the focus should be shifted from the search for single, putatively predictive variables to an attempt to understand why recidivism occurs.