Methods of predicting earthquake damage to urban systems are discussed based on the earthquake damage estimation conducted by Miyagi prefecture, Japan, in 2004. Evaluation of earthquake environment, selection of scenario earthquakes and estimation of the ground motion intensity considering the soil conditions are discussed. Prediction of damages to urban facilities and systems is discussed, mainly focusing on building vulnerability. Fragility curves for assessing various building damages are discussed. Role of earthquake damage prediction is considered in relation to the countermeasures for earthquake disaster to urban systems.
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Akenori Shibata (2005) studied this question.
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