NIL, the transfer portal, and quarterback talent in NCAA football

Recent NCAA policy changes reduced barriers to player mobility and allowed athletes to be compensated for their Name, Image, and Likeness, making the labour market for athletes more competitive. We investigate how these changes affect the distribution of elite quarterback talent within NCAA football. After controlling for the supply of elite quarterbacks, which increases during the NIL period, and team-specific factors, we find no aggregate effect on the likelihood of teams having an elite quarterback on their roster. However, Power conference schools do have significantly more elite quarterbacks on their rosters after the policy change, and this is primarily driven by elite talent moving to schools without a returning starting quarterback. This suggests that these policy changes allow market forces to direct resources where they have an opportunity to be more productive. These findings suggest that market forces are directing elite quarterbacks towards Power programmes where there is a chance to start, and QB talent generally is moving to where it has a clearer path towards playing time.