Towards a New Qualitative Screening Assay for Synthetic Cannabinoids Using Metabolomics and Machine Learning

BACKGROUND: Synthetic cannabinoids (SCs) are steadily emerging on the drug market. To remain competitive in clinical or forensic toxicology, new screening strategies including high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) are required. Machine learning algorithms can detect and learn chemical signatures in complex datasets and use them as a proxy to predict new samples. We propose a new screening tool based on a SC-specific change of the metabolome and a machine learning algorithm. METHODS: Authentic human urine samples (n = 474), positive or negative for SCs, were used. These samples were measured with an untargeted metabolomics liquid chromatography (LC)-quadrupole time-of-flight-HRMS method. Progenesis QI software was used to preprocess the raw data. Following feature engineering, a random forest (RF) model was optimized in R using a 10-fold cross-validation method and a training set (n = 369). The performance of the model was assessed with a test (n = 50) and a verification (n = 55) set. RESULTS: During RF optimization, 49 features, 200 trees, and 7 variables at each branching node were determined as most predictive. The optimized model accuracy, clinical sensitivity, clinical specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 88.1%, 83.0%, 92.7%, 91.3%, and 85.6%, respectively. The test set was predicted with an accuracy of 88.0%, and the verification set provided evidence that the model was able to detect cannabinoid-specific changes in the metabolome. CONCLUSIONS: An RF approach combined with metabolomics enables a novel screening strategy for responding effectively to the challenge of new SCs. Biomarkers identified by this approach may also be integrated in routine screening methods.