Global probability map for potential accumulation of floating marine debris in coastal areas

Floating marine debris (FMD) has become a global concern due to its negative impacts on coastal communities, marine ecosystems, and biodiversity. About 170 trillion pieces of FMD pollute on the ocean’s surface, of which more than 70% are present within coastal areas. FMD is known to aggregate along fronts, or boundaries between different water masses and areas of species aggregation. This study applies a regional model incorporating coastal fronts and their processes to identify potential FMD accumulation zones in coastal regions worldwide. Ocean fronts were derived from daily moderate-resolution Imaging spectroradiometer sea surface temperature data between 2002 and 2012. Fronts and key frontogenesis variables (Finite-Size Lyapunov Exponents, current velocity, and current direction) were incorporated into a binomial regression model to estimate the probability of FMD accumulation. High probability accumulation aligns with persistent frontal zones where current velocities are low, and water convergence is weak. These zones constitute approximately 17% of the coastal zone. Potential FMD accumulation zones (⩾ 60% probability) are identified in the coastal waters including northern and northeastern Australia, Southeast Asia, the German Bight, and the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery datasets offer a promising tool for detecting global FMD accumulation zones, providing broad spatial coverage with adequate resolution even at localized scales. This insight can support efforts to conserve biodiversity in priority areas and mitigate the environmental impacts of FMD on marine ecosystems.