Can democracy in Africa be sustained?

Can the young democracies born with such speed in Africa in the early 1990s survive into their teens? Already many show signs of ill health and some have been wounded, perhaps fatally, at the hands of armed men (Burundi, Comoros Islands, Congo‐Brazzaville, Guinea‐Bissau and Niger). This article reviews current thinking on the variables most decisive in determining democratic sustainability, that is, not just the presence, but the stabilisation of democratic structures, procedures, behaviour and popular support. It will be for the reader to compare the theory with the empirical evidence on Commonwealth Africa provided in the subsequent articles, both to evaluate theory and to provide a comparative framework for the detail.