Validity concerns in the use of Structured Professional Judgement risk assessments for individuals serving Imprisonment for Public Protection sentences

Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) tools provide a rigorous approach to predicting risk. The tools are used by psychologists and other professionals to aid risk prediction and support decision making in legal processes such as parole. Our review of the existing literature reveals limitations that may be salient when assessing those in custody serving Indeterminate Sentences for Public Protection (IPP) in England and Wales. Given the indefinite nature of IPP sentences, these limitations carry profound consequences, however, questions about predictive validity of risk assessments are rarely challenged in legal settings. This article aims to provide areas of consideration for professionals (psychologists, Parole Board members and legal professionals) when reviewing psychological risk evidence highlighting the areas where validity of assessments may be reduced. We recommend that confidence in psychological evidence on risk, for those serving IPP sentences, is addressed in evidence to parole hearings.