Multi-risk mapping and sensitivity analysis for biodiversity conservation under climate change

Protected natural areas play a critical role in maintaining biodiversity, yet they are increasingly exposed to interacting natural and anthropogenic risks intensified by climate change. This study develops a national-scale multi-risk assessment framework for Romania's protected areas by integrating geomorphological (landslides, soil erosion), hydrological (floodability), climatic (aridity, wildfire susceptibility), and anthropogenic pressures (land use, infrastructure, pollution sources) within a GIS-based analytical pipeline. Individual risk layers were standardized and combined using a weighted overlay approach supported by the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and expert validation. Model robustness was evaluated using spatial overlap analysis and statistical metrics (Kappa >0.78; AUC 0.81–0.89), indicating substantial predictive performance. Results reveal pronounced spatial clustering of high and very high multi-risk classes, particularly in southern lowlands, floodplain systems, and mountainous areas characterized by geomorphological instability. A structured sensitivity appraisal of projected climate trajectories (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) indicates differentiated amplification patterns, with aridity and wildfire susceptibility showing the strongest climate sensitivity in southern and eastern bioregions. The findings demonstrate that biodiversity vulnerability in Romania cannot be adequately interpreted through single-hazard approaches, as cumulative and interacting pressures dominate spatial risk patterns. The proposed framework provides a transferable methodological basis for integrating multi-risk analysis into conservation planning and adaptive management strategies under ongoing climate change.