A longitudinal study of adolescent and adult conviction rates among children referred to psychiatric services for behavioural or emotional problems

Background Previous findings suggested that associations between childhood hyper‐activity and later criminality were mediated mainly by conduct disorders. Method Information recorded in case notes was used to predict officially recorded criminal convictions in later life among 148 individuals who were seen as child psychiatric patients between 1948 and 1982. Multiple Poisson and logistic regressions were used to examine the independent contributions made by symptom/behaviour counts, diagnosed conduct disorder, and social and family factors to the prediction of recorded criminality during two later periods (ages 17–21 and 22+), taking into account previous recorded criminality in each case. Results Previous convictions were highly predictive of every offending outcome examined except convictions for violent offences. Among males, symptoms of hyper‐activity were independently predictive of convictions at age 17–21, multiple offending (five or more separate convictions), and having received a custodial sentence. A childhood diagnosis of conduct disorder made little additional contribution to the prediction of later offending over and above the effects of previous convictions. Conclusion Symptoms of hyperactivity increased the risk of later convictions among boys with behavioural or emotional disturbances in ways that were not mediated by previous convictions or other measures of childhood conduct problems.