Potential Climate Change Effects on Ice Covers of Five Freshwater Lakes

Ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and ice thicknesses for four lakes in the United States and one lake in Canada were simulated. The model used is a one-dimensional, deterministic water quality model that simulates daily vertical temperature profiles in lakes year round and has the ability to simulate ice-on dates, ice growth, ice decay, and ice-off dates. The average standard errors between simulated and measured values were 10, 9, and 11 days for ice-on dates, ice-off dates, and ice cover duration, respectively, without calibrating the model. The model was also employed to simulate the effect of a projected 2×CO2 climate scenario on the ice characteristics of the same five lakes. Under the 2×CO2 climate scenario, the average ice-on dates are 7–12 days later; the average ice-off dates are 15–23 days earlier; the ice cover durations are 25–33 days shorter; and the maximum ice thicknesses are 0.18–0.30 m thinner. The sensitivity of lake ice characteristics to different meteorological parameters was also investigated.