Comparative Techno-Economic Assessment of LNG Regasification Alternatives Using Cost–Capacity Scaling and Analogous Estimation

This study presents a comparative techno-economic assessment of three LNG regasification alternatives, namely offshore platform conversion, floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) retrofit, and onshore LNG terminals, under a 100 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) development scenario representative of prospective LNG infrastructure requirements in Indonesia. Capital cost is estimated using both cost–capacity scaling based on a 20 MMSCFD reference case and analogous estimation, while project schedule and technical maturity are evaluated. The resulting capital cost, project schedule, and technical maturity are subsequently used as input criteria in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to rank the LNG regasification alternatives. The assessment shows that offshore platform conversion remains the preferred alternative, followed by FSRU retrofit and onshore LNG terminals. Although the alternative ranking remains unchanged under both cost estimation approaches, the choice of cost estimation method influences the preference magnitude among the alternatives through its effect on the cost criterion. Comparison of the two approaches shows that the conventional cost–capacity scaling method, using a uniform scaling exponent of 0.6, produces inconsistent cost estimates relative to analogous estimation, overestimating the costs of offshore platform conversion and FSRU retrofit while underestimating those of onshore LNG terminals. Back-calculation yields effective scaling exponents of 0.43, 0.37, and 0.77 for offshore platform conversion, FSRU retrofit, and onshore LNG terminals, respectively. The study extends previous comparative techno-economic assessments to a 100 MMSCFD development scenario and systematically evaluates the applicability of the conventional cost–capacity scaling approach through comparison with analogous estimation, leading to the derivation of configuration-specific scaling exponents by back-calculation. These findings provide a more representative basis for conceptual-stage cost estimation and support more reliable decision-making during early-stage LNG infrastructure planning.