Being Prepared: Modeling the Response to an Anthrax Attack

Editorials19 April 2005Being Prepared: Modeling the Response to an Anthrax AttackGlenn F. Webb, PhDGlenn F. Webb, PhDFrom Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37240.Author, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-142-8-200504190-00016 SectionsAboutFull TextPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail On 1 February 2005, Connecticut residents heard an emergency alert broadcast, beginning at 2:10 p.m. and ending at 3:10 p.m., that ordered them to evacuate the state. Fortunately, their response was minimal. A state emergency management official had mistakenly entered the wrong computer code into a weekly test of the emergency alert system, and incredulous Connecticut residents had correctly assumed that the broadcast was a false alarm. The incident illustrates several difficulties in preparing for a future catastrophe. Potential catastrophes differ in form, scale, and predictability, and each requires specific consideration of risk and preparation. If we could predict with ...References1. Petersen A. The philosophy of Niels Bohr—1885-1962. Bull At Sci. 1963;19:8-14. CrossrefGoogle Scholar2. Fowler RA, Sanders GD, Bravata DM, Nouri B, Gastwirth JM, Peterson D, et al. Cost-effectiveness of defending against bioterrorism: a comparison of vaccination and antibiotic prophylaxis against anthrax. Ann Intern Med. 2005;142:601-10. LinkGoogle Scholar3. Wein LM, Craft DL, Kaplan EH. Emergency response to an anthrax attack. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003;100:4346-51. [PMID: 12651951] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar4. World Health Organization. Health Aspects of Chemical and Biological Weapons: Report of a WHO Group of Consultants. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 1970. Google Scholar5. U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment. Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risk. Report no. OTA-ISC-559. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office; 1993. Google Scholar6. Webb GF. A silent bomb: the risk of anthrax as a weapon of mass destruction. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003;100:4355-6. [PMID: 12682291] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar7. Kaufman M. U.S. awards anthrax vaccine deal. The Washington Post. 5 November 2004:A4. Accessed at www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26564-2004Nov4.html on 2 March 2005. Google Scholar Author, Article, and Disclosure InformationAffiliations: From Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37240.Disclosures: None disclosed.Corresponding Author: Glenn F. Webb, PhD, Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, 1326 Stevenson Center, Nashville, TN 37240; e-mail, glenn.f.[email protected]edu. PreviousarticleNextarticle Advertisement FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsSee AlsoCost-Effectiveness of Defending against Bioterrorism: A Comparison of Vaccination and Antibiotic Prophylaxis against Anthrax Robert A. Fowler , Gillian D. Sanders , Dena M. Bravata , Bahman Nouri , Jason M. Gastwirth , Dane Peterson , Allison G. Broker , Alan M. Garber , and Douglas K. Owens Metrics Cited byAn Optimal Control Model to Reduce and Eradicate Anthrax Disease in Herbivorous AnimalsStructure-Immunogenicity Relationship of α- and β-Tetrasaccharide Glycoforms from Bacillus anthracis Exosporium and Fragments ThereofGlycan surface antigens from Bacillus anthracis as vaccine targets: current status and future perspectivesIn situgastrointestinal protection against anthrax edema toxin by single-chain antibody fragment producing lactobacilliDesign and evaluation of a wireless electronic health records system for field care in mass casualty settingsCurrent and Future Medical Approaches To Combat the Anthrax ThreatAnthrax prevention and treatment: utility of therapy combining antibiotic plus vaccineMedical countermeasures to protect humans from anthrax bioterrorismMechanistic Modeling of Emergency Events: Assessing the Impact of Hypothetical Releases of AnthraxAnthrax Vaccine and Public Health PolicyHigh-Impact Medical Journals and Peace: A History of InvolvementPotential biological targets of Bacillus anthracis in anti-infective approaches against the threat of bioterrorismBacillus anthracis : interactions with the host and establishment of inhalational anthraxEvaluation of Public Health Interventions for Anthrax: A Report to the Secretary's Council on Public Health Preparedness 19 April 2005Volume 142, Issue 8Page: 667-668KeywordsAnthraxAntibioticsForecastingLong-term careMathematical modelsPatientsPhysicistsPublic policySimulation and modelingVaccines ePublished: 19 April 2005 Issue Published: 19 April 2005 Copyright & PermissionsCopyright © 2005 by American College of Physicians. All Rights Reserved.PDF downloadLoading ...