Predicting potential habitat suitability of Quercus suber L. in Algeria under climate change scenarios

Cork oak is one of the forestry species of major socio‐economic importance in western Mediterranean countries and in particular in Algeria. However, its conservation depends on the accurate estimates of its spatial distribution and a detailed knowledge of its ability to adapt to climate change. The purpose of this study is to model the potential habitat suitability for cork oak in Algeria with a view to determining the most vulnerable areas to climate change. Species distribution modelling (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential current and future distribution of Q. suber under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The study results showed that the highly suitable areas for the current distribution of cork oak cover 20,640 km2. Future scenarios depict a slight reduction of those areas (−1.1 to 4.2%), with a general shifting in altitude. The environmental variable with highest gain when used in isolation was annual precipitation (Bio12), which therefore appears to have the most useful information by itself. Overall, the maps derived from this study are an important tool to help foresters geolocate sites where the climatic conditions expected for the region in the coming decades will be inadequate to the cork oak and select appropriate areas of cork oak forests to be preserved in Algeria.