A 221-year summer precipitation reconstruction using tree rings reveals hydroclimatic variability in the Kashmir Himalaya

The Pir Panjal mountain range of the Kashmir Himalaya represents a climatically sensitive transition zone influenced by both the Indian Summer Monsoon and mid-latitude Western Disturbances, making it vulnerable to hydroclimatic fluctuations. Understanding long-term summer rainfall variability in this region is essential for assessing water-resource sustainability, ecosystem dynamics, and future climate risks. Here, we developed a 245-year (1780-2023 C.E.) tree-ring chronology of Pinus wallichiana based on 180 increment cores from the Pir Panjal Range to decipher long-term climatic evolution. This chronology was significantly correlated with May-August precipitation ( r = 0.61, p < 0.05 ). The linear regression model was used to reconstruct May-August precipitation for the period 1802-2023 C.E., explaining 38% of the variance of observed precipitation records at Srinagar. The reconstruction reveals substantial interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimatic variability, with the most severe droughts occurring during 1904, 1934, 1970-1971, 1802-1809 C.E. Major wet phases were identified during 1810-1816 C.E., 1974-1982 C.E., 2003-2011 C.E., and 2013-2023 C.E. Reconstructed wet and dry phases correspond closely with historical records and previously published hydroclimatic reconstructions, indicating regional coherence across the northwestern Himalaya. Wavelet analyses identified periodicities within the ∼8-12, ∼12-20, and ∼64-80 year bands, highlighting climatic variability operating across multiple temporal scales. Spatial correlation analysis further demonstrated that the reconstruction captures a strong regional precipitation signal. Such long-term records are essential for understanding hydroclimatic extremes and for supporting climate adaptation, water-resource management, assessing water-resource sustainability, and ecosystem dynamics in the Himalayan region.