Key result
A simple risk model based on age, creatinine, and ejection fraction provides similar accuracy and better calibration than complex models for elective cardiac surgery patients.
A simple three-factor risk model (age, creatinine, ejection fraction) may be as accurate and better calibrated than complex models for elective cardiac surgery patients, though all models struggle with rare, extreme risk conditions.
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Should not yet change practice; leaves open prospective validation of simplified models in elective cardiac surgery.
Marco Ranucci (2010) conducted a review in Cardiac surgery. Simple risk model (age, creatinine, ejection fraction) vs. Complex risk models was evaluated. A simple risk model based on age, creatinine, and ejection fraction provides similar accuracy and better calibration than complex models for elective cardiac surgery patients.
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