A dynamic multi-criteria framework for national critical raw materials assessment in Iran: Integrating geopolitical risk, resource security, and supply-chain resilience

This study presents a systematic framework for establishing the first national list of Iranian Critical Raw Materials (IR-CRMs). Owing to its extensive primary mineral resources and substantial secondary resources derived from mining, mineral processing, and metallurgical residues, Iran possesses significant potential to satisfy domestic demand and contribute to regional and global supply chains for selected critical raw materials. Building upon the European Union criticality assessment methodology, this study addresses a key limitation of conventional approaches—their largely static nature—by developing a dynamic and context-specific assessment framework. A hybrid decision-making methodology integrating fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM), fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), and five-year time-series analysis was developed to evaluate material criticality under Iran’s geological, industrial, economic, environmental, and geopolitical conditions. Six main criteria and twenty-one sub-criteria were identified and weighted using FCM and FAHP, while time-series analysis captured temporal variations in supply risk, economic importance, and industrial demand. The proposed framework identified 58 materials with sufficient data availability and classified them into six necessity levels according to their criticality scores. Platinum group elements, beryllium, lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, uranium, and rhenium were identified as the most critical raw materials for Iran, each with a criticality score exceeding 0.90, whereas gold, silver, and iron exhibited the lowest criticality scores. The results further demonstrate the strategic importance of strengthening domestic beneficiation, refining, recycling, and advanced material production to improve resource security and increase participation in higher-value mineral supply chains. Beyond establishing a national critical raw materials list, the proposed IR-CRMs framework provides an adaptable decision-support tool for integrating resource governance, industrial policy, technological capability, and geopolitical risk into national critical raw material strategies. The methodology is readily transferable to other resource-rich developing economies seeking to strengthen critical mineral security and supply-chain resilience under evolving global conditions.